Forecasting time series

mforecast is a class of objects for forecasting from multivariate time series or multivariate time series models. The function invokes particular methods which depend on the class of the first argument.

Usage

# S3 method for class 'mts'
forecast(
  object,
  h = ifelse(frequency(object) > 1, 2 * frequency(object), 10),
  level = c(80, 95),
  fan = FALSE,
  robust = FALSE,
  lambda = NULL,
  biasadj = FALSE,
  find.frequency = FALSE,
  allow.multiplicative.trend = FALSE,
  ...
)

Arguments

object

a multivariate time series or multivariate time series model for which forecasts are required

h

Number of periods for forecasting

level

Confidence level for prediction intervals.

fan

If TRUE, level is set to seq(51,99,by=3). This is suitable for fan plots.

robust

If TRUE, the function is robust to missing values and outliers in object. This argument is only valid when object is of class mts.

lambda

Box-Cox transformation parameter. If lambda="auto", then a transformation is automatically selected using BoxCox.lambda. The transformation is ignored if NULL. Otherwise, data transformed before model is estimated.

biasadj

Use adjusted back-transformed mean for Box-Cox transformations. If transformed data is used to produce forecasts and fitted values, a regular back transformation will result in median forecasts. If biasadj is TRUE, an adjustment will be made to produce mean forecasts and fitted values.

find.frequency

If TRUE, the function determines the appropriate period, if the data is of unknown period.

allow.multiplicative.trend

If TRUE, then ETS models with multiplicative trends are allowed. Otherwise, only additive or no trend ETS models are permitted.

...

Additional arguments affecting the forecasts produced.

Value

An object of class "mforecast".

The function summary is used to obtain and print a summary of the results, while the function plot produces a plot of the multivariate forecasts and prediction intervals.

The generic accessors functions fitted.values and residuals extract various useful features of the value returned by forecast$model.

An object of class "mforecast" is a list usually containing at least the following elements:

model

A list containing information about the fitted model

method

The name of the forecasting method as a character string

mean

Point forecasts as a time series

lower

Lower limits for prediction intervals

upper

Upper limits for prediction intervals

level

The confidence values associated with the prediction intervals

x

The original time series (either object itself or the time series used to create the model stored as object).

residuals

Residuals from the fitted model. For models with additive errors, the residuals will be x minus the fitted values.

fitted

Fitted values (one-step forecasts)

Details

For example, the function forecast.mlm makes multivariate forecasts based on the results produced by tslm.

See also

Other functions which return objects of class "mforecast" are forecast.mlm, forecast.varest.

Author

Rob J Hyndman & Mitchell O'Hara-Wild