Introduction
Sports betting isn’t just about picking winners—it’s about finding value. That’s where the OddsTide Positive EV Tool comes in. Designed for bettors who want to beat the books long-term, this tool uses real-time odds, market analysis, and statistical modeling to identify bets with a mathematically proven edge.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or an experienced sharp, understanding how to use this tool can make the difference between breaking even and building a profitable bankroll.
What is a Positive EV Bet?
A Positive Expected Value (EV) bet is one where the odds you're getting from a sportsbook are better than the "true" or fair odds of that outcome. Over time, placing +EV bets increases your expected profit, even if you lose individual wagers along the way.
The Math Behind EV
Expected Value Formula: EV = (Probability of Win × Profit if Win) - (Probability of Loss × Loss if Loss)
The concept of expected value originates from probability theory and is fundamental to all forms of advantage gambling.
Example:
- Bet: $100 on team at +150 odds (you believe they have 45% chance to win)
- If you win: Profit = $150
- If you lose: Loss = $100
- EV = (0.45 × $150) - (0.55 × $100) = $67.50 - $55 = +$12.50
This means each $100 bet at these odds has an expected value of $12.50, or 12.5% EV.
Why Sportsbooks Have Built-in Margins
The OddsTide Positive EV Tool automatically scans multiple sportsbooks, removes the built-in vig (bookmaker's margin), and highlights bets where you have the advantage.
How vig works: If fair odds on a coin flip would be +100 for both sides, sportsbooks might offer -110/-110 instead. This ensures they profit regardless of outcome—the difference is their margin.
Understanding this concept is crucial for long-term success. For deeper technical details, see our Positive Ev Betting Advanced Guide.
How to Read the Positive EV Tool
When you open the Positive EV tool on OddsTide.com, you’ll see a live table with the following columns:
- Market – The betting market (e.g., Moneyline, Spread, Total Points) the tool is analyzing.
- Bet – The specific side or outcome that has value.
- Book – The sportsbook currently offering the advantageous odds.
- Odds – The actual odds you can bet right now at that book.
- No-Vig Odds – The “true” odds after removing the bookmaker’s margin.
- EV% – The percentage edge you have over the sportsbook. A higher EV% means a greater expected profit long-term.
- Kelly-Derived Recommended Bet Size – Using the Kelly Criterion, this shows the mathematically optimal stake size to maximize bankroll growth while managing risk.
Understanding Kelly Criterion in Practice
The Kelly Criterion calculates the optimal bet size based on your edge and the odds offered. The tool shows you exactly how much to bet, but here's what's happening behind the scenes:
Kelly Formula: Bet Size = (Edge / Odds) × Bankroll
The Kelly Criterion was developed by John L. Kelly Jr. at Bell Labs and has become the gold standard for optimal bet sizing in professional gambling and investing.
What the tool considers:
- Your bankroll size (set in Tool Settings)
- The calculated edge from devigged odds
- Your chosen Kelly multiplier (0.25×, 0.5×, 1.0×, etc.)
- Risk tolerance settings
Why fractional Kelly matters: Most profitable bettors use 0.25× to 0.5× Kelly to reduce variance while maintaining strong growth. The tool defaults to conservative sizing for this reason.
For comprehensive bankroll management strategies, see our Intro To Bankroll Management and Advanced Bankroll Management guides.
Step-by-Step: How to Use the Tool
Step 1 – Identify the Market
Look for sports or leagues you’re comfortable betting on. The market column makes it easy to see exactly what kind of bet you’re evaluating.
Step 2 – Compare the Odds vs. No-Vig Odds
The “Odds” column shows what the sportsbook is offering, while the “No-Vig Odds” represent the fair odds. If your available odds are better than the fair odds, the bet has value.
Step 3 – Look at EV%
EV% is your quick-glance profitability measure. Anything positive means the bet is in your favor, but prioritize bets with higher EV% for the best long-term results.
Step 4 – Use the Kelly-Derived Bet Size
The Kelly Criterion takes into account your bankroll and EV% to recommend the optimal bet size. Following this helps you maximize profits while avoiding over-betting and bankroll risk.
Step 5 – Place Your Bet Quickly
Odds change fast. Once you find a strong +EV bet, lock it in before the market shifts.
Why the Positive EV Tool Works
- Real-Time Odds Tracking – Never miss a line movement that creates value.
- No-Vig Calculations – Strips out the sportsbook’s margin so you see the real odds.
- Kelly Optimization – Tells you exactly how much to stake for optimal growth.
- Multi-Book Coverage – Compares odds across top sportsbooks to find the best price.
Over hundreds or thousands of bets, even a small edge compounds into meaningful profit.
Pro Tips for Maximizing the Tool's Impact
Advanced Filtering Strategies
- Focus on Higher EV% – While any +EV bet is good, prioritizing higher EV% wagers will increase your ROI
- Filter by sport/market – Focus on markets where you have the most knowledge or where the tool finds consistent edges
- Time-based filtering – Some bettors prefer betting close to game time, others prefer early lines
Portfolio Approach
- Stick to Bankroll Management – Use the Kelly bet size as a guideline to avoid risking too much on one play
- Diversify Your Bets – Spread your wagers across markets and sportsbooks to reduce variance
- Complement with other tools – Use Arbitrage for risk-free profits and Odds Screen for line movement analysis
Execution Excellence
- Act Fast – +EV opportunities can disappear in minutes as sportsbooks adjust lines
- Have multiple accounts – Quick execution requires having funds ready across multiple sportsbooks
- Track your CLV – Monitor whether you're getting better or worse prices than closing lines
Building Your System
Week 1-4: Learning Phase
- Start with small bet sizes to learn the tool
- Focus on major markets (NFL/NBA sides, popular totals)
- Track every bet and its outcome
Month 2-3: Optimization Phase
- Increase bet sizes as comfort grows
- Experiment with different filters and settings
- Analyze which markets provide best opportunities
Month 4+: Scaling Phase
- Implement full Kelly recommendations
- Explore player props and alternative markets
- Consider portfolio approach with multiple OddsTide tools
Integrating with Other OddsTide Tools
Use Odds Screen to monitor line movements and understand market timing.
Combine with Arbitrage when you find risk-free opportunities alongside your +EV bets.
Utilize Calculators to verify bet sizing and understand potential returns.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does positive EV mean in betting?
Positive EV (Expected Value) means a bet where the potential payout exceeds the risk when calculated over many similar bets. A +5% EV bet means you expect to profit $5 for every $100 wagered in the long run.
How accurate are EV calculations?
EV calculations are as accurate as the underlying probability models. OddsTide uses market-derived probabilities from multiple sportsbooks, which are generally very accurate. The key is having a large sample size of bets.
What's a good EV percentage to target?
Most professional bettors are profitable with edges as small as 2-3%. Anything above 5% EV is considered excellent. However, higher EV often comes with higher variance, so balance is important.
How many EV bets should I place per day?
Quality over quantity. Focus on bets with at least 2% EV rather than placing every marginally positive bet. Most successful bettors place 5-20 quality bets per day.
Why do my EV bets still lose sometimes?
Positive EV doesn't guarantee individual wins—it guarantees profit over hundreds or thousands of bets. Even a 70% win probability means you'll lose 30% of the time. Variance is normal and expected.
Final Thoughts
The OddsTide Positive EV Tool is more than a betting aid—it's your personal advantage against the sportsbook's edge. By learning to read the markets, trust the no-vig calculations, and follow optimal stake sizing, you can transform your betting from guesswork into a calculated, data-driven strategy.
Start using the Positive EV Tool today and turn smart bets into consistent long-term profits. As you gain experience, explore our advanced guides to further refine your edge and maximize your returns.
Next steps:
- Read Positive Ev Betting Advanced Guide for technical details on devigging methods
- Learn Advanced Bankroll Management for portfolio optimization
- Explore Best Sports Betting Tools 2025 to understand how OddsTide fits into your betting stack